Models

Below is the list of all the Bitcoin pricing models. Each model measures different aspects of the Bitcoin network. Click on a model for more information on that model. For more information on what a model is and how it works, see the page.
Prism BTC is continuously building new models. Check back here often for updates.
Current price indication
78 ▲
Current price analysis
Very near price top
Typical trend duration
6 - 12 months
The Hype Cost Basis (HCB) model integrates two critical metrics, the Mayer Multiple and the Realized Price, to provide a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's market conditions and investor sentiment. This approach allows HCB to offer nuanced insights into the market dynamics and potential future price movements of Bitcoin.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 2 years
The All Holders Capital Realization (AHCR) model employs the well-known "Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio" (ASOPR) metric to dissect and understand the economic behavior of Bitcoin transactions, focusing on the profit or loss status of active coins. ASOPR evaluates the ratio of the value of spent outputs (transacted Bitcoin) at current prices to the value at their creation prices (when they were last moved). Essentially, it measures whether Bitcoins being transacted are, on average, being sold at a profit or a loss.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 3 years
The All Holders Potential Risk (AHPR) model employs the well-known "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss" (NUPL) metric to gauge the collective market sentiment and potential risk among all Bitcoin holders. NUPL provides a macroscopic view of the Bitcoin economy by calculating the difference between unrealized profit and unrealized loss among all Bitcoin holders, expressed as a percentage of the market capitalization. This distinction between unrealized gains and losses offers a unique insight into the psychological state of the market, reflecting the overall investor sentiment and potential risk at any given moment.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 2 years
The Coin Age Behavior (CAB) model leverages the well-known "RHODL Ratio" to dissect and interpret the market sentiment and potential future trends of Bitcoin by monitoring the "age" of coins and their movement patterns across different holder groups. The "age" of a coin is simply just how long the coin has not moved.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 2 years
The Fair Market Value (FMV) model utilizes a combination of the well-known "Market Value to Realized Value" (MVRV) Ratio and the well-known "Realized Price" metrics to assess the current valuation and market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. By integrating these metrics, FMV aims to offer investors another perspective for whether Bitcoin is currently overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced relative to historical standards.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 2 years
The Hype Bubble Index (HBI) uses a well-known metric called the "MVRV Z-Score", focusing on identifying potential overvaluation or undervaluation phases that could suggest the formation of speculative bubbles or significant market bottoms. The MVRV Z-Score juxtaposes Bitcoin’s market capitalization against its realized capitalization and then normalizing this value through standard deviation measures.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
2 - 3 years
The Long Holder Capital Realization (LHCR) model utilizes the well-known "Spent Output Profit Ratio", specifically only for long-term holders (Lth-SOPR). The "long-term" holder aspect means it only focuses on Bitcoin investors who have held their assets for more than 155 days. The Lth-SOPR metric distinguishes the realized profit and loss positions of these long-term holders by comparing the value at which their bitcoins were purchased to the value at which they are sold.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 2 years
The Long Holder Dynamics (LHD) model leverages the well-known "Realized Capitalization waves" for coins held for over a year. This targets long-term holders. Realized Capitalization waves is a measurement of the "realized price" of the coins grouped into cohorts based on the time they were last moved. In LHD we focus on the cohort of coins that have not moved in over a year, so it focuses on the realized price of coins dormant for more than 1 year.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 3 years
The Long Holder Potential Risk (LHPR) model employs the well-known "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss" (NUPL) metric, specifically analyzing only the "long-term holder" cohort, to analyze and interpret the sentiment of Bitcoin's long-term investors. This model is designed to assess the financial standing and decision-making of investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days, offering insights into the broader implications of their actions on the market's future trajectory.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 3 years
The 'Top 5 Models' is a composite model, meaning that its Price Indication is derived from other models. This model's Price Indication is an average of these other model's Price Indication: [Fair Market Value, Hype Cost Basis, Coin Age Behavior, Long Holder Potential Risk, Trend Momentum Gauge]. These models were hand-picked by our team for providing the best diversity coverage across the array of aspects followed by our models.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
6 months - 2 years
The Trend Momentum Gauge (TMG) analyzes Bitcoin's market trends by employing the well-known "Mayer Multiple" metric. This model delves into Bitcoin's pricing behavior over time, providing a methodical approach to understanding its future price movements. The Mayer Multiple, the cornerstone metric of TMG, is calculated by dividing the current price of Bitcoin by its 200-day moving average. This ratio highlights the relative position of Bitcoin's current price to its historical average, offering insights into its market status as either overvalued or undervalued.
Current price indication
Current price analysis
Typical trend duration
1 - 2 years
The Value Realization Index (VRI) utilizes the well-known "Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio" metric to assess the current valuation of Bitcoin in comparison to its historical economic behavior. The MVRV Ratio, a core metric of the VRI, contrasts the market capitalization of Bitcoin (the market value) with its realized capitalization (the aggregated price at which each bitcoin last moved). This metric sheds light on whether Bitcoin is currently overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical average.

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